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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/21 11:29

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans are the midday leader, with corn flat, and wheat weaker.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up 
135 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 20 
higher. Energies are flat to lower with crude down 0.30. Livestock trade has 
cattle sharply lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $1.00. 


   Corn trade is 1 cent higher at midday with trade bouncing back from 
overnight weakness after the soft finish yesterday. Soybeans are providing 
spillover support along with Argentine weather. Ethanol margins are narrowing 
with corn at the upper end of the range, but remain mostly positive with 
ethanol futures edging higher. U.S. export values should remain pretty 
competitive at current U.S. offers, but the daily wire has been quieter in 
recent days. Double-crop areas in Brazil look to build some moisture in the 
coming days. On the March chart support is at the 10-day at $3.66 with the 
20-day at 3.62 below that, with the 200-day moving average at $3.76 the highest 
moving average and major resistance. 


   Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade coming back from 
the soft start overnight after failing to hold gains yesterday. November trade 
did score a new high. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 30 to 40 points 
higher. The weather pattern looks to keep Argentina dry, and Brazil wet in the 
near term, which is limiting downside. There should volatility moving forward 
with the failure to hold new highs scored Tuesday, and trade filling the gap 
left to start the week overnight. Early Brazilian harvest will continue despite 
being slowed by rains, causing some crop losses. On the March, support is the 
10-day moving average at $10.08, with resistance the $10.39, which is the 
six-month high scored Tuesday. 


   Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents lower with soft wheat holding up the best at 
midday; with eastern U.S. growing areas are in line for rain in the near term, 
but dry spots persisting to the west. The dollar is higher again at midday, but 
remains below 90 on the index. The Russian crop will continue to be watched 
with less cover than usual, with Black Sea values continuing to edge higher. On 
the March Kansas City wheat chart, support is at the 200-day moving average at 
$4.71 which we are below at midday, and then the 20-day at $4.65 with 
resistance the recent high at $4.84 1/2.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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